The Old Milwaukees

Community Projections: Shortstops

February 25, 2010

First I have the results of our projections on Gregg Zaun. I like our results here, we're slightly higher in slugging but pretty well in line. We project Zaun for 63.6% of the playing time at catcher, so that works out to about 380-400 plate appearances, and that makes a lot of sense to me. 

BCB Community Projection: .249/.336/.384

CHONE: .230/.332/.368

ZiPS: .243/.345/.373

And with that, we're on the shortstops. It's Alcides Escobar's first year in the majors, and this represents one of the most variable projections we will have this year. Last year's line of .304/.333/.368 shows the unique situation he's in: the average shows the incredible promise that he has as an offensive player, but the fact that he only managed a .311 wOBA and .700 OPS indicates that his average will have to stay this high to maintain even a below-average level of production. He's young, so it's very likely that his ability to draw walks and hit for power will improve. There's plenty of evidence that a high average could be sustainable for him eventually, but this year could be a struggle for him. There's no doubt Escobar will be a valuable player this year, but how much of that can we attribute to his bat?

Here's Escobar's Fangraphs page and MLS page. CHONE says .291/.334/.389. ZiPS says .279/.321/.378. What do you say?

Meanwhile, there's everybody's favorite deity, Craig Counsell. He's really old. ZiPS projects .252/.337/.353, CHONE projects .234/.324/.323. I'd assume he's the main backup at short but I'll put in an "other" box once again if you'd like to budget some shortstop time for someone else. Here's the Craig Counsell fangraphs page.

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The Thursday Thinker: Closing Ceremonies

February 25, 2010

This week's Thursday Thinker comes once again from the mind of Infield Fly Rule, and has an Olympic theme.

Since 1984, eighteen players have played baseball in the Olympics for Team USA, and later gone on to play in the Brewer organization. How many can you name in five minutes?

Again, here are the rules: Post your score in the comments, but do not comment on any specific answer until after 6 pm Central time, so everyone gets a chance to try it out without having it spoiled for them. And, of course, there's no reason to cheat here, because there's no prizes.

This one is near impossible, and I'd be surprised to see anyone get half of them, much less all. If you somehow do, though, post your time along with your score in the comments.

This will probably be the last Thinker for a while. It's a fun game and a great timekiller, but I think I'm going to make it into an offseason feature. A week from today we'll have spring training games to talk about, and the regular season is looming on the horizon.

Have fun, and don't forget to post your score in the comments!

Dillard tinkering with new delivery

February 25, 2010

Give Brewers right-hander Tim Dillard some credit: The old way wasn't exactly working, so he's trying something new.

Thursday’s Two Year Mugiversary

February 25, 2010

Some things to read while debating the merits of nihilism.

Some of the more unlikely faces were drawing the most notice in camp yesterday, as Ken Macha had a lot of positive things to say about the early work of Chris Capuano, Kameron Loe and Chris Narveson. Capuano is back to throwing his signature changeup, which was a huge part of his success as a Brewer.

We've talked a lot lately about expectations for Rick Peterson, and what he can and can't do as a pitching coach. Here's a note on some extra work he did with Tim Dillard, who apparently needed to make a mechanical adjustment.

While some pitchers are making adjustments and drawing positive reviews, at least one Brewer pitcher is handling this camp just like any other: Jeff Suppan told Tom Haudricourt he's getting ready for the 2010 season the same way he always has, and that nothing has been said to him about competition for spots in the rotation. Suppan posted a 5.29 ERA last season, the fourth consecutive season it's gone up. If he honestly doesn't think he needs to compete for a spot this spring, then his head is pretty deep in the Arizona sand.

On the other end of the spectrum, we have Casey McGehee. Coming off the best season of his life, McGehee is taking nothing for granted and is in camp prepared to earn his roster spot again this season. The JS Depth Chart has him #1 at third base, with Craig Counsell, Mat Gamel and Joe Inglett following him, in that order.

Other minutiae from camp:

• Ryan Braun reported to camp late in the day yesterday, and will take part in his first informal workout today.
• Logan Schafer and Lorenzo Cain, who had previously been reported as not in camp, are actually in camp on the minor league side, but won't join the major league squad until full workouts begin this weekend.
• Adam McCalvy snapped a photograph of 2009 draft pick Kyle Heckathorn during his bullpen session yesterday, and called him "one big dude."
• Kameron Loe used to have a boa constrictor, which he occasionally kept in the clubhouse in Texas. He had to give it up for adoption when he spent last season in Japan.
• Adam Heether and Casey McGehee signed their 2010 contracts yesterday, leaving the Brewers with five unsigned pre-arbitration players.

It's spring training for the fans too: If you fell behind this winter, Miller Park Drunk has a crash course on the new Brewers, including lots of made up facts and things to yell if they underperform.

It's also spring training for the folks who run the MLB.com store: Right Field Bleachers noticed a Claudio Vargas #4 jersey for sale online. Vargas wore #46 last season. Even if he wanted to make a change, #4 is unavailable: it's Paul Molitor's number, and has long been retired.

Another day, another new set of expectations for Alcides Escobar: the Community Projections at Minor League Ball have him hitting .271/.316/.354, significantly lower in every aspect than Bill James, CHONE or FanGraphs have him projected. Even at those numbers, his defensive contributions would still make him valuable.

The Brewers also need to decide where he'll hit. Tipping Pitches has another look at the concept of batting the pitcher eighth and Escobar ninth.

At any rate, most Wisconsin-based fans will be able to watch Escobar and the Brewers 157 times this season. The Brewer broadcast schedule was announced yesterday, with 136 games on FS Wisconsin, 15 on WMLW, and six on national TV (FanShot). For the first time, all 136 FSWI games will be in HD. Just like last year, the WMLW games will be in something vaguely resembling SD.

In the minors: The Wisconsin Timber Rattlers are asking for your help to select a left handed pitcher for their 15th Anniversary Team.

One of the most interesting Community Projection positions is up for your consideration, as we're asking for your thoughts on Brewer second basemen in 2010. R.J. Anderson of FanGraphs has a look at Rickie Weeks' notable defensive improvement over the last few seasons, and thinks he should be projected to be roughly league average defensively in 2010.

On rankings, predictions and stuff:

• The Ghost of Moonlight Graham gave the Brewers a B for their offseason moves, tied for the NL's third highest grade.
• Bucs Dugout has an extended preview of the 2010 Brewers, and thinks they'll win 76 games and finish fourth in the Central.

Around baseball:

Mets: Designated lefty Arturo Lopez for assignment.
Nationals: Signed Livan Hernandez to a minor league deal.

Here's an interesting debate from The Book Blog: Would you support or oppose a rule allowing teams to concede defeat after the sixth inning? I can see the point in occasionally doing so: Preserving bullpen arms, avoiding risk of injury, etc. But even if the rule were in play I don't think it would be frequently used. The concept of giving up on a game, no matter the deficit, probably wouldn't go over well with fans.

Larry LaRue of the Tacoma News Tribune filed this story under the headline "Pitchers are strange," and it's hard to argue with his logic: Erik Bedard won a pool in Mariners camp yesterday by correctly predicting that reliever Shawn Kelley would need six stitches after getting spiked in the face by teammate Mark Lowe.

Do pitching and defense win championships? That's the question Brandon Isleib of The Hardball Times is looking to answer with his Report Cards series. Follow the link for a cameo appearance by the 1982 Brewers.

Happy birthday today to:

• Wisconsin native and long time Milwaukee Brave Andy Pafko, who turns 89.
• 1995-96 Brewer David Hulse, who turns 42.

Finally, two years ago today the Frosty Mug appeared on the front page of this site for the first time.Thanks to everyone who's stopped by (and hopefully continued to stop by) to make the Mug a part of your morning each weekday. Each morning I wake up at 6:15 and wonder why I've kept doing this for two years...but by 10 am or so I usually remember.

Also, as you may have noticed at the top of today's Mug, I've decided to ditch my pen name and go by my real name full-time from here on out. My true identity was kind of an open secret anyway, so now seemed like as good a time as any to make the switch.

Oh, and if you're headed to the ballpark in Japan, watch out for creepy mascots.

Drink up.

Community Projections: Second Base

February 24, 2010

Today it's Rickie Weeks and the rest of the second basemen on the projection schedule. Durability is probably the most important part of this projection, because Weeks has yet to go over 475 plate appearances in a season. Last year in 147 PAs he hit .272/.340/.517, which looks very nice but is actually below his career OBP. Weeks has been a very productive hitter in his career so far, being underrated by most fans and many writers. The fourth annual Rickie Weeks breakout season begins now, and it starts with health. 

Chone projects .262/.368/.449, ZiPS projects .240/.345/.419. From here on I will link the player's Fangraphs page if any of our participants would like to scout out the past few seasons. That page also has a few other projections systems you might find interesting.

For the first time we're going to throw a backup in the mix as well. I'm going to assume that Craig Counsell will be the primary backup at second base, but we'll project him tomorrow in the shortstop section. Joe Inglett makes an appearance in this particular form. If you don't feel he will make the team it's perfectly fine to leave his boxes blank. Finally, and this requires a bit of math, submit your playing time percentages as usual but make sure they add up to 100. If you think a player that is not Inglett or Counsell will get some time at second base (Casey McGehee maybe), stick that time in the final "other" box. 

Inglett's relevant numbers are a .273/.333/.375 ZiPS projection and .278/.341/.386 line from CHONE. Here's his Fangraphs page for further reference.

The form is again after the jump. We had 150 entries yesterday, which is very good work (although I'm going to throw out the 5 or 6 entries with slugging percentages above .800, and the humorous person who entered "3" in playing time and "14" for slugging percentage). And a few people wrote a number of games instead of a percentage of playing time, please make that change as we go on. Thanks for your participation. 

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Brewers’ Telecast Schedule Announced

February 24, 2010

Brewers' Telecast Schedule Announced

Is Vargas Swiping The Ignitor’s Number?

February 24, 2010

In the Brewers.com online store, if you select Claudio Vargas from the players list for authentic personalized jerseys, his jersey number is No. 4.

This is obviously a mistake as Paul Molitor’s No. 4 has been retired for years and Vargas is still listed as No. 46 on his Brewers.com player’s page, but on a slow Wednesday at the start of Spring Training, it’s somewhat interesting nevertheless.

Thanks to commentor Hoffman 51 on JSOnline who pointed out the mistake in JSOnline’s Brewers Blog comments.

DiFelice rehabbing at Minor League complex

February 24, 2010

Reliever Mark DiFelice arrived at the Brewers' Minor League complex this week to continue what is expected to be a year-long rehab process following December shoulder surgery.

Brewers’ TV schedule to be aired in HD

February 24, 2010

The Brewers released their 2010 television schedule on Wednesday, and announced that for the first time all of the broadcasts on FOX Sports Wisconsin will be in high definition.

McGehee refuses to ease up

February 24, 2010

While the Brewers ponder who could emerge this spring as the next Casey McGehee, McGehee himself isn't resting on his 2009 laurels.