The Old Milwaukees

World Series Game 2 Open Thread

October 29, 2009

They play again tonight, right?

The Thursday Thinker: On Managers

October 29, 2009

I mentioned in this morning's Mug that today is the seventh anniversary of the hiring of Ned Yost. Yost was the fifteenth manager of seventeen in Brewer history.

How many of the 17 can you name in five minutes?

Again, here are the rules: Post your score in the comments, but don't comment on any specific answer until after 6 pm Central time, so everyone gets a chance to try it out without having it spoiled for them. And, of course, there's no reason to cheat here, because there's no prizes.

Of the three quizzes I've posted, this is probably the easiest. If you manage to get them all, post your time along with your score in the comments. Of course, if you've only been following the Brewers for a few years, you may only remember 4-5 of them.

Have fun, and don't forget to post your score in the comments!

Thursday’s Frosty Mug

October 29, 2009

Some things to read while testing the healing powers of bacon.

Jon Heyman is the latest to bring up the possibility that Jarrod Washburn could become a 2010 Brewer (as noted in Rumorville). Al says "he's been solid for far too many seasons to pretend he's not a good pitcher." With that said, he's also 35 years old and coming off surgery.

I'm having a hard time getting off the fence on this possibility. Obviously, Washburn's age and injury status would create the possibility that signing him could turn into a major mistake. With that said, his ERA in Seattle was never over 4.69, and when you adjust that for the NL he could very well be expected to post something in the 4.20-4.40 range next season. Giving him anything more than a two year deal would be a mistake, but to me he's worth considering in the short term.

Meanwhile, Jorge Says No! is still listing the Brewers as one of six teams that could trade for Gary Matthews Jr., but only if the Angels eat most of his salary. Every GM starts the offseason looking for players who are cheap and good: Trading for GMJ with the intent of playing him in center field would mean sacrificing the "good" part to get the "cheap."

Here's an unsubstantiated possibility I'll throw out there: The Mets are reportedly looking for a right-handed platoon partner for Daniel Murphy at first base next season. At first glance, Casey McGehee would make sense, as his versatility would allow him to fill in at other positions when he's not starting at first. Just a thought.

And while I'm out here on the rampant speculation train, View From Bernie's Chalet has a look at one potential Opening Day lineup for the 2011 Brewers. He presents a pretty encouraging possibility: A productive Brewer lineup with all eight position players under 30.

Earlier this week, the Milwaukee chapter of the BBWAA announced their postseason awards, but it's possible they didn't tell the whole story. Miller Park Drunk has the full list of awards presented.

By the way, to answer MPD's question: No, the Milwaukee BBWAA chapter isn't just the three writers from the Journal Sentinel. Six ballots were cast when voting on the awards: One of them was likely AP reporter Colin Fly, and I'm pretty sure the Madison Capital-Times and Racine Journal-Times also have active BBWAA members.

In the minors:

• Bernie's Crew has short videos of the deliveries of three of the Brewers' top pitching prospects: Cody Scarpetta, Jake Odorizzi and Wily Peralta, if you haven't seen them before.
• Baseball Intellect, at least partially spurred by this Battlekow interview, discusses Evan Anundsen's drop in velocity and the possibility that his high pitch counts in high school are to blame.
• Baseball America has a report card for the Brewers' 2009 Draft. It's behind their pay wall, but Rattler Radio has several of the salient points.

Around baseball:

Astros: Outrighted catcher Chris Coste to AAA. Coste will be a minor league free agent.
Braves: Are expected to sign Tim Hudson to a three year contract extension worth $27 million.
Dodgers: Manny Ramirez exercised his $20 million player option to remain with the team next season.
Rays: Outrighted first baseman Chris Richard to AAA, making him a minor league free agent.
Rockies: Reliever Joel Peralta rejected an outright assignment to the minor leagues and will become a free agent.

Yesterday, Roguejim noted MLB Trade Rumors' Bad Contract Swap Meet. That's a good idea, but this one would be better TV: Dave Cameron of FanGraphs proposes the Bad Contract White Elephant. Clearly it's intended to be tongue in cheek, but I'd watch it.

Earlier this week, BCB endorsed the Phillies in the World Series, and we're off to a pretty good start. It appears not everyone got the memo, though: Ryan Grant is rooting for the Yankees.

I don't buy a lot of baseball books, but I gladly shell out the money for John Sickels' Baseball Prospect Book every year. It's easily my top resource for scouting reports on over a thousand prospects and it's great to have on hand when attending spring training or minor league games. I've probably consulted it 30-40 times in my work here during the 2009 season. Sickels is currently accepting pre-orders for the 2010 book, which help pay for its publication. If you're a minor league buff or just want to be one step closer to knowing what you're talking about when discussing prospects, I'd highly recommend picking up a copy.

Speaking of the minors, the Reds' decision to move spring training from Sarasota to Goodyear, Arizona has sent a ripple into the minor leagues: The Reds, who also own their Florida State League affiliate in Sarasota, are selling it to the Pirates, who intend to move it to their spring training facility in Bradenton. So, in one year's time the city of Sarasota may lose both their spring training presence and their FSL team.

On this day in 2002, Ned Yost was hired to manage the Brewers, and Ken Macha was named manager of the A's. We'll have more on Brewer managers later today.

Happy birthday to Dana Eveland, who pitched in 36 games as a Brewer in 2005 and 2006 and turns 26, knuckleballer and 2007 Nashville Sound R.A. Dickey,, who turns 35, and Narciso Elvira, who appeared in four games for the 1990 Brewers and turns 42.

Oh, and if you're feeling nostalgic, this description of Gabe Kapler's play should bring back some memories.

Drink up.

Fall/Winter League Update for 10/29/2009

October 29, 2009

In Arizona: Three Brewer pitchers got shelled and allowed all eleven runs in the Javelinas' 11-6 loss to Phoenix. Josh Butler, attempting to bounce back from strep throat, started and allowed six runs on eight hits and two walks in three innings. He was followed to the mound by Rob Wooten, who allowed three runs on three hits in one inning (and had an error on a pickoff throw). Omar Aguilar finished off the game by allowing two runs on four hits and a walk in two innings of work, but did get three strikeouts.

Both Butler and Aguilar also allowed home runs to AFL phenom Grant Desme, who is batting .469/.544/1.143 in 49 ABs with ten home runs. He's on pace for 23 homers: the AFL record is 14.

In Venezuela:

• Adam Heether went 1-for-3 with a walk and drove in a run in Caracas' 6-3 loss to Magallanes.
• Brendan Katin went 1-for-4 and struck out three times in Zulia's 7-1 loss to Aragua.
• Ryan Houston got roughed up a bit in his VWL debut, allowing two runs on three hits (one home run) in .2 innings of work, picking up a blown save and a loss in Lara's 9-8 loss to Caribes.
  
• The only VWL game with no Brewers in it was probably the game of the day: La Guaira's 18-17 win over Margarita.

In the Dominican Republic: Erick Almonte went 1-for-4, scored a run and struck out twice in Cibao's 4-3, 10 inning loss to Aguilas on Tuesday.

World Series Game 1 Open Thread

October 28, 2009

It's former Brewer CC Sabathia and the Yankees against Cliff Lee and the BCB endorsed Phillies tonight at 6:57.

Enjoy the game!

Congratulations to the winners in our Bring Back Seth McClung contest!

October 28, 2009

Congratulations to the winners in our Bring Back Seth McClung contest!

MLBTR’s Bad Contract Swap Meet

October 28, 2009

This could be one of my all time favorite MLBTR posts.  Tim Dierkes scoured all of baseball's contracts and cribbed together the worst of the worst, the contracts any GM would love to get rid of.  Happily, only Jeff Suppan (1 year, $14.5 million) is listed under the Brewers, though there are some other familiar names, including CoCo (2 years, $25 million) and Scott Linebrink (2 years, $10.5 million).  Interestingly, there's only one Yankee on the list (Kei Igawa, 2/$8), versus three Cubs (heh).

This got me thinking: how would you pawn off Suppan's contract using the names on this list, if you could?  (I'd assume we couldn't get rid of Suppan's contract unless we took back a multi-year, more expensive contract in return.)  Would you trade Suppan for Milton Bradley (2 years/$21 million)?  I'd probably take a chance on the board game magnate in center, so long that we have Plan B (Jody Gerut) in case something goes wrong.  What can you come up with?

Taking a look at some early projections

October 28, 2009

Earlier this week, ACTA Sports sent me a preview of the hitter projections from 2010's Bill James Handbook. Obviously, it's still really early, but I found some of the projections interesting, so I thought I'd pass them along to you.

Let's start with your likely leadoff hitter for the 2010 Brewers:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Rickie Weeks	425	.259	.357	.449	80	48	23	5	16	56	100

 

It's probably worth noting that even Bill James, who tends to be relatively optimistic, doesn't project Weeks to play a full season in 2009 (he has him at 114 games). Even so, these numbers are probably a little optimistic. The .259 average is a slight drop from 2009, but the .357 OBP is actually 17 points higher. Weeks was off to a hot start slugging in 2009, posting a .517 slugging percentage, but this .449 projection would be easily the second highest of his career.

Other potential second basemen:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Felipe Lopez	565	.281	.352	.400	79	58	31	3	10	60	104
Craig Counsell	342	.246	.337	.327	45	25	15	2	3	42	51

 

While James has Lopez playing a full season, he projects to be less productive, losing 55 OPS points to Weeks. This line for Counsell looks fair, although the Brewers are likely in trouble if they actually need him for 342 ABs.

Follow the jump for lots more projections!

Both because he could feasibly bat #2 and because he's possibly the most interesting projection:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Alcides Escobar	504	.288	.326	.377	75	48	22	4	5	28	77

 

If Escobar can put up this kind of season and still play the level of defense we've come to expect from him, I'll be overjoyed. James also projects him to steal 42 bases in 54 attempts, adding roughly 18 bases to his value. The walk total may look low, but it's actually a bit optimistic: Escobar only averaged 23.3 walks per season over six years in the minors. Escobar's primary source of value will almost certainly always be his glove, but if he can put up a .700 OPS in the majors then he'll be a significantly above average contributor at short.

The other option, of course, is J.J. Hardy:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
J.J. Hardy	528	.254	.320	.422	70	68	28	2	19	50	92

 

This isn't as strong of a bounce back as I was expecting to see. Certainly, Hardy adds a little bit of power over Escobar, but his OBP is actually a little lower, and his base-stealing ability is completely negligible (James projects Hardy to go 1-for-1 stealing bases). These numbers are roughly the midpoint between Hardy's very good 2008 season and extremely disappointing 2009.

Moving on, I think it's pretty safe to assume Ryan Braun will be batting third and playing left field on Opening Day, unless Anthony Witrado is promoted to GM:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Ryan Braun	615	.315	.378	.593	112	119	42	6	39	53	112

 

Those are MVP-quality numbers if ever I've seen them. Braun projects to be an elite player again next season, and if the award doesn't go to Albert Pujols (projected to go .333/.443/.642 with 44 home runs), Braun might have to be considered the frontrunner. These numbers would set new career highs in slugging, RBI, doubles and home runs, while tying a career low in strikeouts.

And, unless something changes before spring, Prince Fielder will likely be hitting behind Braun:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Prince Fielder	601	.286	.393	.574	103	124	37	2	44	96	135

 

With these numbers, Fielder would still be one of the National League's premier hitters, but his production would actually decline a bit from 2009's numbers in all three slash stats, RBI, home runs and walks. Fielder won't turn 26 until May, so it seems strange to project him to decline, even slightly. With that said, he'll still be one of the NL's elite hitters.

The way things stack up at present, the leading candidate to bat fifth and play third base is likely Casey McGehee:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Casey McGehee	492	.272	.328	.429	63	76	30	1	15	41	86

 

Like many of us, James expects McGehee to come back down to Earth a little, but these projections still have him as a solid-to-slightly above average third baseman. All three slash lines are significant steps down from the .301/.360/.499 numbers he put up in 2009.

The other option, of course, is some guy the Brewers have on the end of the bench:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Mat Gamel	455	.277	.354	.464	65	73	28	3	17	53	142

 

These projections, especially the OBP, seem a little high, but Gamel projects to outperform McGehee in nearly every way en route to a .818 OPS. This is yet another piece of evidence to be used in the argument that the Brewers should sell high on McGehee to make room for Gamel in the lineup.

(I know at least a few of you would probably like to see a projection for Adam Heether here, but he doesn't appear in James' projections. Sorry.)

Until told otherwise, I'm going to continue to assume Mike Cameron will return to play center field and bat sixth:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Mike Cameron	561	.237	,328	.428	79	74	32	3	23	71	171

 

These numbers aren't the best argument for opening the checkbook to keep him around. Clearly, James is expecting age to catch up with Cameron, who would lose 13 points in average, 14 in OBP, 24 in slugging, and strike out over 170 times for just the second time in his 16 year career. These numbers still aren't terrible, and combined with good defense Cameron is still likely an above average center fielder. But, with that said, paying anything like his $10 million 2009 salary for performance at this level is a questionable decision.

Dropping all the way to the seventh spot in the lineup in right field, here's Corey Hart:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Corey Hart	533	.272	.332	.467	78	76	37	5	19	43	110

 

This would actually be a pretty nice bounce-back season for Hart, with his highest batting average, slugging percentage and run total since 2007. Entering his age 28 season, it's possible Hart will never be the player we all thought he might be after hitting .295/.353/.539 three years ago, but these numbers would be acceptable for a corner outfielder.

While we're on the subject, here are the projections for some other outfielders on the Brewer roster:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Frank Catalanotto	110	.273	.360	.418	14	12	8	1	2	10	14
Jody Gerut	162	.259	.326	.420	23	20	9	1	5	14	25

 

I'm not sure either of these stat lines suggest either of these guys should play everyday, but they project to be solid fourth and fifth outfielders next season, and if it won't cost too much to do so, I'd be fine with bringing both back. Thankfully, there's no projection for Corey Patterson.

I'm preparing myself for disappointment by operating under the assumption that Jason Kendall will continue to catch and tie up the eighth spot in the batting order again next season.

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Jason Kendall	409	.254	.338	.320	43	35	19	1	2	37	44

 

I'm not sure what James is smoking here, because even this lackluster projection seems a little too high. In two seasons as a Brewer, Kendall has hit ..244/.329/.315, and I'm not sure he can even repeat that at age 36, much less improve upon all three numbers. Kendall is likely getting the benefit of the doubt based on an extensive major league career, but recent evidence would suggest he's sliding downhill, not mounting a comeback. I'm not sure where one finds the data to support even a small offensive resurgence from a weak-hitting 36 year old catcher.

Interestingly enough, James' projections don't have Mike Rivera, but they do have Angel Salome:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Angel Salome	240	.296	.345	.442	30	39	15	1	6	18	45

 

This is much higher than I would have projected Salome, who I think might be the third best of the three internal options to replace Kendall next season (Sadly, Jonathan Lucroy is also not projected). With that said, Salome is projected to out-OPS Kendall by 129 points. Remember what it was like when the Brewers had a catcher that wasn't an offensive black hole? Me either. I'd love to see what that's like.

So, what do you think of these projections?

Wednesday’s Frosty Mug

October 28, 2009

Some things to read while getting a new backpack.

So apparently Gary Matthews Jr. wants out of Anaheim, and some Brewer fans (including Al) think he could be a good fit in center field next season, if the Angels agree to pay most of his salary. Meanwhile, Angels management is somewhere hoping and praying that there's one general manager left in baseball who thinks Matthews can be a productive major leaguer next season. Dave Cameron of FanGraphs notes that Matthews has been worth -$5.3 million in salary over the last three seasons. And while he was a pretty good defender at one point, TotalZone ranked him as the fourth worst defender in all of baseball last season. And he's 35 years old. On the scale of center fielders, Matthews is much closer to Corey Patterson than Mike Cameron.

The Milwaukee chapter of the BBWAA has unveiled their postseason awards, with Prince Fielder and Yovani Gallardo surprising no one by taking home Team MVP and Pitcher of the Year honors, respectively. Trevor Hoffman was named top newcomer, Todd Coffey was named Unsung Hero and Craig Counsell won the "Good Guy" award, which may be renamed for him when he retires. Mike Cameron also received two community service awards: one from the team and one from the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum. Congratulations to all of them.

Speaking of Mike Cameron, he's one of two Brewers among the top 6 free agents by WAR. Cameron ranks sixth with 4.3 WAR, a couple spots down from Felipe Lopez, who is fourth with 4.6.

Josh Butler has a new blog post from the AFL. Today's topics include night games, strep throat and his repertoire. Butler has been home for a few days with strep but still expects to make his scheduled start today.

Unless another package of stuff shows up on my doorstep, today is your last chance to enter the Bring Back Seth McClung contest. As of this writing, 401 people have signed up. I'll draw seven winners from the group at 5 pm today.

There had previously been speculation that Doug Melvin could consider leaving the Brewers to become president of the Blue Jays. You can lay that rumor to rest: Interim President Paul Beeston has been given the full time job. Elsewhere around baseball:

Astros: Signed former Red Sox bench coach Brad Mills to be their new manager.
Rays: Signed Gabe Kapler to a one year deal for slightly more than $1 million.

As you may have heard, Mark McGwire is coming out of hiding to return to the Cardinals as hitting coach. Lookout Landing speculates on how his first meeting with Skip Schumaker might go.

Speaking of Lookout Landing, they spent the evening last night watching a winter league game in Venezuela, and have some observations on the experience.

Side note: Lookout Landing also has a link to free live broadcasts of VWL games, but when I clicked on it the first thing I got was a box asking for permission to connect to my Facebook account. Don't fall for it.

Still looking for a replacement for Jason Kendall? MLB Trade Rumors has a list of catchers that may be available via trade. Most of them aren't too exciting, but it's possible all of them would be better than Kendall next season.

So this is how the other half lives: As part of the McCourt divorce, Jamie McCourt has submitted a list of her monthly living expenses, which includes over $30,000 (per month) for clothing and accessories, over $1000 for wine, and $533 per month for a birthday party. Apparently when you're that wealthy, you get a birthday every month. Who knew?

Speaking of birthdays, happy birthday to:

• Braden Looper, who turns 35.
• Lenny Harris who spent 2002 as a Brewer and turns 45.
• Mark Knudson, who appeared in 106 games as a Brewer in the late 80's and early 90's, and turns 49.
• And Bob Melvin, who served as Phil Garner's bench coach and turns 48.

Staying on the subject of birthdays, Wezen-ball has compiled a calendar of Top Birthday WARs. So if you've ever wanted to know the best player born on your birthday, there you go. Mine is Joe Judge, who racked up 43.7 WAR playing first base for the Washington Senators from 1915 to 1932.

That's all I have for you today, unless you're someone in need of a list of unacceptable Halloween candy.

Drink up.

Fall/Winter League Update for 10/28/2009

October 28, 2009

In Arizona: Mark Rogers pitched 1.1 innings in relief and allowed two earned runs on two hits and three walks, throwing two wild pitches and striking out just one. The Bats picked him up, however, and the Javelinas outscored Scottsdale, 10-9. Lorenzo Cain went 0-for-4, but drew two walks and scored twice. He's hitting .171/.326/.229 in AFL play.

In Venezuela: Adam Heether went 0-for-3 with a walk and two strikeouts and scored a run in Caracas' 5-4 win over Lara. Hernan Iribarren went 1-for-4 with a walk, a run scored and a fielding error for Lara, and Freddy Parejo entered the game in the eighth inning as a pinch runner but did not score.